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TOWARDS COOPERATION WITH THE U.S. AND POLAND
Belarusians are pursuing a strategy of diversifying oil supplies to their refineries but this does not necessarily mean that they will eventually give up importing Russian oil. New possibilities of oil transport (including primarily through Poland) may be used by the authorities in Minsk as a ‘bargaining chip’ to obtain better conditions for co-operation with Russian partners.
TOWARDS REGIONAL MARKETS INTEGRATION
The Ukrainians are in talks with the American company Louisiana Natural Gas Exports about the possibilities of supplying American LNG to Ukraine using the Polish LNG terminal in Świnoujście. At present, the infrastructure remains an obstacle, in particular the shortage of regasification capacity in Poland and transmission capacity on the Polish-Ukrainian border. However, this does not change the fact that there are great prospects for cooperation on the Washington-Warsaw-Kiev line, which may eventually also result in the creation of a new regional gas hub.
OFFSHORE WIND EXPANSION: THE CASE OF GERMANY
Wind energy is to become one of the most important renewable energy sources in the future. In Germany, the Act on the promotion of offshore wind energy has been in operation for more than three years and in June 2019 a complementary maritime spatial development plan was published. The example of Germany shows that the development of offshore wind farms should be a priority in order to draw clean energy from nature in the future, thus reduce emissions of greenhouse gases.
MILITARY MOBILITY – A NEW OLD QUESTION TO ADDRESS
The possibility of a future hybrid or conventional conflict in the eastern flank of NATO means that the Alliance must adapt to the challenges of military mobility. The oil and fuel complex in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe may become a target for enemy’s diversion, which will hinder NATO’s military operations.
The US Congress is working on sanctions to stop the construction of Nord Stream 2. If the applicable regulations are actually passed before the construction work is completed it will mean stopping the Nord Stream 2 project. However, the Russians may be able to resume construction using their own ships, although this would involve a significant delay in construction.
IMPLICATIONS FOR EUROPEAN LNG MARKETS